New law bars Aung San Suu Kyi from running in 2010 elections
The Political Parties Registration Law, published in official newspapers, excludes anyone convicted by a court of law from participating in the elections.Read more...
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Yangon to be sold off, Burma state assetts privatized
Burma is to be transformed overnight. The NY Times (h/t 1972) reports that Burma is preparing to sell off a massive quantity of state asserts in the next few week ahead of the election:
Diplomats and businessmen say that the sales may allow ruling generals to build up cash for election campaigns to the new Parliament, where they will hold 25 percent of seats, or to pay for salary increases for civil servants and other populist measures. Many of the assets are being sold to businessmen allied with the military, reinforcing the strength of a class of oligarchs and military cronies.This kind of activity is music to the ears of some observers:
But the privatizations could also have the effect of injecting some competition into what is an almost Soviet-style economic system, and some analysts here say they may herald a shift in direction. Reformers in the government, they say, may be hoping to follow a path similar to that of China or Vietnam, where the economies have been liberalized but the ruling party has remained firmly in charge and has tolerated little dissent.
It is also opening the health care and education sectors to private enterprise, Mr. Phone Win said, issuing licenses for the first time for private hospitals and schools. “There are opportunities here for the international business community,” he said.The visible effects of the sell-off will likely destroy the appearance of the former capital, architectural gem of Southeast Asia:
For a people accustomed to more gradual change under military rule, the scale of the sales is raising apprehension that it will strengthen the hand of military cronies. One businessman in particular, U Tay Za, owns an airline and a soccer team and has interests in the teak, tourism, telecommunications and construction businesses. He has now been appointed the head of a new petroleum association and appears to be expanding his holdings.It will be interesting to monitor how the rest of the international media reports this orgy of privatization: a liquidation of public asserts for the purpose of massively enriching the country's corrupt regime and its friends:
In recent days, the country’s Privatization Commission produced a list of 176 assets in Yangon, the main city, to be auctioned off sometime over the next few weeks. The 18-page list, which was shown to prospective buyers, includes a wide-ranging roster of buildings in Yangon worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
The list, which covers only part of the privatization plan, features many former government offices, notably the lakeside office of the attorney general, the national archives, the auditor general’s headquarters, the archaeology department and the Ministry of Industry.
The buildings were abandoned when the capital was moved to the more remote location of Naypyidaw in 2005, and their sale would seem to ensure that the move was irreversible.
The businessman said it was likely that dozens of colonial-era buildings would be torn down. “I feel like I’m bleeding,” he said.
The businessman said the military had compiled a separate list of assets for auction that he had not seen; other buildings may also be auctioned independently, he said.
The assets being sold include the country’s fuel import and distribution network, gem and tin mines, farmland, and factories, according to businessmen who have seen announcements of the sales. Most of the announcements have been made to small groups of businessmen and then spread by word of mouth.Important questions remain unanswered. Will foreigners participate in the auctions? If not, surely foreigners will be the buyers when many of these assets are resold. At the end of the day, will the Chinese end up owning much of Burma? Singapore's state capitalists? A handful of rich Thais? Read more...
The government has put out word that it is selling factories producing soft drinks, cigarettes and bicycles, among other commercial goods, according to U Phone Win, the head of a nonprofit organization that assists people in rural areas.
Anti-terrorist raid in Indonesia kills Bali bomber
Putra Jijah at Demotix photographed the aftermath of a police raid on the outskirts of Jakarta that has apparently led to the death of three people, including Dulmatin, a fugitive wanted in connection with the 2002 Bali bombings.
Read more...New malaria strain on Thai-Cambodian border
Reuters reports that according to the New England Journal of Medicine and US AID
artemisinin-based combination therapy is "now taking two to three times longer to kill malaria parasites along the Thai-Cambodian border than elsewhere."As with three previous -- and particularly odious -- strains of malaria, the epicenter seems to be "the remote province of Pailin, a former stronghold of ultra-communist Khmer Rogue rebels and once renown for blood-red rubies and lush forests."
This new strain of drug resistant malaria is also afflicting residents of Northwestern Thailand, and there are fears that it could spread globally. Read more...
Thai court decision on Thaksin asset siezure
My thoughts posted here. Links to live-blogger reports here.
Read more...Clueless about free speech?
Singaporeans have formed two Facebook groups to date drawing a total of nearly 700 members with the aim of marshalling public opinion to demand that authorities arrest Lighthouse Evangelism founder and senior pastor the Rev. Rony Tan.You don't ask your government to arrest someone for expressing an opinion about a religion. Even if you think it's a stupid, baseless opinion. (I see where a Buddhist blogger has called the pastor's remarks "ridiculous." That's a more appropriate way to handle an opinion you don't like: blog about it.)
Meanwhile, in Malaysia, some Muslim groups have demanded that their government dictate the words that Christians can and cannot use to describe the Christian God.
Too much petitioning of governments, too little blogging.
Photo: The First Amendment. Read more...
Thai safe-haven for refugees actually a dead trap
Shane Abrahams blogs from the Thai-Burma border town of Mae Sot:
A man has died after treading on a landmine in an area that Thai authorities last week claimed was safe for Karen refugees to return to.Read more...
According to a report by the Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB), the explosion happened about 500 meters from the Ler Per Har camp for Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). He died while en route to receive medical attention in Thailand.
Last week, Thai officials had promoted Ler Per Har to foreign observers as a safe haven for thousands of Karen refugees to be returned to. . .
January live-blogs from Thailand
Concerning Thailand's uncertain political situation, I came across two significant "there live" blogger reports from January (links to which are posted at therelive.com).
If I missed one, please let me know.
Indonesian man injured by exploding cigarette
Although Andi Susanto lost six teeth there may be a silver lining to his misfortune.
Read more...Hospitals and public health in Thailand
Bangkok Pundit has been blogging here and here about a scandal in Thailand which "led to the Minister of Public Health [Witthaya Kaewparadaiand] his Deputy to resign after an investigative committee found irregularities in the tendering process." He adds, "one of the problems was that the committee found that some hospital projects were unnecessary, in particular . . . hospital projects in Ratchaburi." In a new post, Bangkok Pundit expressed concern that "unnecessary is also a very subjective standard particularly for what are political issues."
The Nation sums up the controversy which concerns the criteria by which resources should be distributed within a public health system:
The Ratchaburi hospital is said to have the best facilities in the region and specialises in the treatment of cancer and heart disease. However, the Banlu panel concluded there were other hospitals that deserved funding and focusing on the Ratchaburi hospital was not a "fair distribution of resources".I am inclined to question the Banlu panel's reasoning. "Resource allocation fairness" is not the purpose of a health system; what matters is that patients get better. The question should be: What resource distribution leads to optimal treatment outcomes?
In my experience -- this applies to any country -- a patient requiring surgery is often well advised not to seek treatment at the nearest local hospital. Rather, it is often advisable to travel to a large medical center.
Because at major hospitals staff, technology, and procedures tend to be most up to date.
Moreover, because these institutions see a lot of patients, their surgeons get lots of practice. Busy surgeons tend to be good surgeons. The more times a surgeon performs a particular procedure, the fewer mistakes. No matter how much money you pour into a small rural hospital, the small size of the local community means that the typical surgeon is not required to repeat specialized procedures regularly. (The exception to this rule is when a leading specialist happens to work at a smaller hospital, and patients travel from all the region to see him/her).
The objective of health spending should not be to ensure "fair distribution of resources" across a region, but access to quality treatment. That's why I think it makes sense for Thailand -- or any other country -- to pour abundant resources into a handful of high-volume hospitals. Read more...
Divisions in the Thai military?
Reuters (h/t Newley) picks up on a theme related to developments Jotman has been tracking:
Analysts, diplomats and military sources say it is premature to talk of a split in Thailand’s powerful and politicised army but that festering ideological differences show signs of broadening in one of the most charged climates in decades....The report comments on the fact that although most high ranking military officers steadfastly support the Yellow Shirt royalist faction and Bangkok elite, many lower-ranking soldiers come from the countryside where support for Thaksin and the Red Shirts is strong. Read more...
Thai Army Chief Anupong defiant
... the British Foreign Office will now warn all governments who may have bought devices such as the ADE651 and GT200 that they are "wholly ineffective" at detecting bombs and explosives, the BBC reported yesterday...Read more...
... Gen Anupong stressed that the army would continue to use the existing bomb detectors. He said the work of security forces in the deep South would be compromised if the use of the hand-held sensor device was discontinued.
C02 emissions: Why ASEAN should think health, not climate change
A recent U of Wisconsin research study on the health impacts of carbon emissions found that the health benefits of reducing carbon emissions pay for the cost of reducing emissions, and that this finding holds especially true for developing countries:
"Developing countries might actually attack air pollution first and view climate change as the ancillary benefit."More here. Read more...
The flexibility to account for different approaches toward a common goal could also have important implications for international climate agreements, Holloway says. For example, China is already tackling air pollution issues.
Would Obama make a good king of Thailand?
In his "State of the Union" address last night I though President Obama sounded more like a sovereign than a president. HM the King of Thailand gives annual addresses to the Thai nation in which he pleads with politicians to "work together for the common good." Although that's a fine thing to say if you're a monarch who is "above politics," to me such talk sounds odd coming from someone who is supposed to be in control of a political party.
But there's one critical difference between the US and Thailand. And Obama touched on it in his speech: Whereas increasingly, the infrastructure of the Thai kingdom is sparkling and new, US infrastructure is old and crumbling.
More here.
Thailand's fraudulent bomb detectors
You pull up at a major hotel in a city like Bangkok, Mumbai, or Jakarta. A security guard waves an electronic wand -- supposedly a bomb sensor -- over the trunk and around the carriage of your vehicle. Does this do any good?
Blogger Bankok Pundit (here, here, here, here...), the NY Times, and BBC News have exposed a major scam: the sale by UK companies of fraudulent, non-functional, bomb detection wands. These devices were exposed in tests by the UK government, BBC News, and the Bangkok Post as useless "black boxes". The US military prohibits the the use of bomb detector wands because it has found they don't work.
Yet the devices have been sold to various developing countries -- including Thailand. The fraudulent bomb detectors were manufactured in Britain and Romania at a cost of $250 and sold to the Iraq government for $40,000. An employee of ATSC, a manufacturer of one such device, told the NY Times, "Everyone at ATSC knew there was nothing inside the ADE 651.” The BBC was informed "the theory behind dowsing [i.e. dowsing rods] and the theory behind how we actually detect explosives is very similar".
In the wake of a BBC expose, the UK banned the export of these devices to Iraq and Afghanistan. The Iraqi Prime Minister promptly ordered an investigation.
But even after broadcast of the BBC expose and criminal investigations by the governments of Britain and Iraq, Thailand's top political and military leaders deny there is any problem with these bomb detectors.
- Prime Minister Abhisit: "sometimes if the user hasn’t had enough rest ... the detector’s effectiveness will be reduced." (Here's why that's nonsense)
- Army Chief Anupong to BBC reporter : "(Are) the (device maker's competitors) using you to ask these questions?" (Here's why that's absurd)
- Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban: " "We use a different brand." (Here's why that's false.)
I mean, in their defense, there have to be thousands of security/defense related procurements! National leaders can't be expected to know the details of every device. So why don't they just say, "Thanks for this information, we will investigate." (Even the leader of the world's fourth most corrupt country found the courage to say as much).
This leaves me wondering if the UK investigation will turn up any company evidence of kickbacks to overseas buyers of the devices. If a company is corrupt enough to sell junk, then presumably it is corrupt enough to bribe foreign officials.
Anyway, at the very least incident this shows how these leaders react when confronted with evidence that is not convenient for them; that when it comes to a question of public safety, their #1 priority is protecting themselves from criticism.
_____
About the devices: They include the GT200 device from the Global Technical company. BP comments, "You will see they have a Thai distributor and distributors in other developing countries. They have password protected their brochure, but their Singapore distributor has a FAQ on the GT200 device." Another device in use, made by ATSC Ltd. is called the ADE 651. The two devices are described as "almost identical." Read more...
Why is ASEAN not invited to Nuclear Summit?
UPDATE/Feb 2010: I am told that the White House finally extended an invitation to Thailand to participate in the talks along with fellow ASEAN states Indonesia and Vietnam.
ASEAN, a nuclear-free region, ought to have been invited to attend the "Nuclear Summit" that President Obama is hosting in April. Sources inform Jotman that ASEAN has not received an invitation.
India, one of the countries invited, is not even a signatory to the NPT. Nor is Israel, an "undeclared" nuclear weapons power that is another invitee.
Not inviting ASEAN to such a meeting sends the wrong message.
Opium production Myanmar's Shan State
I blogged about my visit to Burma's remote Shan State in 2006 here and here. By the fall of 2006, the opium-based gangster economy of the Golden Triangle seemed on its way to becoming relic of history. The remaining drug lords of Northern Myanmar had turned to manufacturing synthetic drugs for the Thai market. The region had also become a transit zone for Chinese-made goods and fake drugs.
However, according to a new report, with government backing, the economy of Shan State appears to have reverted back to some of its former ways. AP reports:
... opium cultivation in Shan State — the major production area — has tripled in certain areas over the past three years in Myanmar, also known as Burma, according to a report by the Palaung Women's Organization. The Palaung are an ethnic minority in the northern state.
Researchers found cultivation in two townships under government control rose from 2,380 acres (964 hectares) in 2007 to 11,230 acres (4,545 hectares) in 2009.
"The number of villages growing opium has tripled from 2006 to 2009," Lway Aye Nang, an executive committee member for the organization, said at a news conference Tuesday in Bangkok.
A United Nations’ Office on Drugs and Crime study reported in December by Mizzima suggested that opium production in Burma had increased 11% over a one-year period.
Photo of villagers beside their house in Shan State by Jotman.
Read more...
Photo of villagers beside their house in Shan State by Jotman.
Why is Seh Daeng untouchable?
On Saturday I blogged about a Maj. General in the Thai army who, press reports indicated, had vowed to wage war against the Thai military. As I continued updating the post over the weekend, the story kept getting stranger.
Today the Bangkok Post has an editorial concerning Maj. Gen. Khattiya Sawasdipol, alias Seh Daeng. The newspaper believes Seh Daeng may have fired a grenade into the office of the Thai army chief Anupong:
Like a dead elephant which cannot be covered up just by lotus leaves, as an old Thai saying goes, the recent grenade attack on the office of army chief Anupong Paojinda cannot be covered up by the army. The blatant incident took place on the night of Jan 14, but it was a week later before it was made public and confirmed by the army although the prying noses of the press smelled a rat a few days after the attack thanks to the webboard of Maj Gen Khattiya Sawasdipol, alias Seh Daeng, an army specialist, in which he bragged, without elaboration, about a recent grenade attack
Why the cover-up? One assumption is that the blatant incident would be too embarrassing to bear for Gen Anupong if it was known to the public because it could be seen as a big slap to the face. Another possible assumption is that the army chief himself might not have wanted to bother with Seh Daeng, who emerged as the prime suspect since the latter had openly made threats against the general. After all, no one was hurt. And the attack might not be meant to cause bodily harm but to intimidate.
The hypothesis offered in the second paragraph above make little sense to me. As for the main assertion of the first paragraph, PPT's survey of news reports casts doubt on whether this grenade attack actually occurred. The editorial refers to Khattiya's confession on a bulletin board, and yet a few paragraphs later we read that Khattiya has denied involvement in the attack.
The only part of the editorial that I feel rings true is the final paragraph:
In hindsight, the fact that a rogue soldier has been able to flout the law for quite a long time with impunity and, lately, to challenge his top commander, is partly attributable to the army's reluctance to restrain or discipline him for unknown reasons. For the time being, he appears to be beyond control.For some reason, he's untouchable. One possibility is that he's covertly helping the government. Another Bangkok Post article mentions a coup rumor in connection with the alleged grenade attack on army headquarters:
Army chief Anupong Paojinda said on Monday that he would continue to perform his duties as usual and was not living in fear of attempt on his life.Conceivably, various recent developments could serve to justify a future army coup. To recap, these developments are: 1) the polemic by Chermsak Pinthong, publicized by Prem, arguing that a "civil war" is already underway; 2) Media reports of Seh Daeng's alleged call to arms; 3) and the alleged grenade attack on Thai army headquarters. For background on Khattiya Sawasdipol (Seh Daeng) and details about these three recent events see this post.
He added that the search of the house of Maj-Gen Khattiya last week was jointly conducted by police and officers from the Judge Advocate General's Department. No troops took part in it.
The army chief then reaffirmed that there will be no military coup, despite fears expressed by the red-shirt movement.
The army chief was responding to claims made by supporters of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship during their protest at Khao Soi Dao in Chanthaburi over the weekend, and widespread rumours of another military take over.
Thaksin put stress on the rumours during his video link address to his supporters at Khao Soi Dao, and said he would set up a government-in-exile if there was a coup.
Chaturon Chaisaeng, a former acting leader of the now-dissolved People Power Party, said at a seminar on Sunday that efforts had been made to justify a plan to quell anti-government protests, and that certain military leaders were blacklisting more than 200 pro-democracy demonstrators and thinking of staging a coup.
The rumours gained momentum after the Jan 14 grenade attack on army headquarters.
Gen Anupong said there would be no coup. He said he still did not know who was behind the grenade attack and that he would leave it to police to investigate it.
Concerning the conflict, don't miss this brief photo essay (via there live). Read more...
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