Simmering tensions in Thai army leadership?

Thailand analyst Sean Crispin writes about the recent upheaval in Bangkok in the Asia Times.

His article explores the possibility that simmering tensions in the Thai army leadership might surface as the situation on the streets reaches the point of no return.

Army commander General Anupong Paochinda, who was instrumental in the 2006 putsch that ousted Thaksin, has maintained that without more widespread violence, the military would stay put in its barracks. . . .

Anupong is thought to have consolidated his command through a recent military reshuffle, including through the promotion of pre-Cadet Academy Class 12 colleagues of his key ally, army chief-of-staff General Prayuth Chan-ocha. They now command positions responsible for Bangkok's security.

That includes First Army Region Commander Lieutenant General Kanit Sapitak, who has echoed Anupong's non-interventionist line, but who raised new questions about the chain of command when he indicated without elaborating at a Supreme Command headquarters meeting on Tuesday that there were powers higher than Anupong in deciding whether the military should launch a coup. Anupong, Prayuth and Kanit all served previously in Queen Sirikit's Royal Guard Infantry Regiment.

The widely respected Queen lent the PAD's movement a symbolic boost in October when she presided over the funeral of one of its supporters who had been killed in a melee with Thai police. The PAD has also symbolically erected a massive portrait of Queen Sirikit at its main protest site at Government House, to which they have laid siege since August 26. The royal family is by Thai law above politics, but is known to have strong sway over the armed forces."

The army leadership question is vital because the government would appear to have little choice but to use force to disperse protesters -- a number armed with spears and other weapons -- now dug in at the closed Bangkok airport. Crispin writes:

Many analysts fear Somchai's government, which, at least overtly, has refrained from violent reprisals since the October 7 melee, now has no choice except to use force to disperse the PAD and restore its credibility. One political insider said the government had as of early Wednesday devised plans to deploy armed riot control and border patrol police units to take back the aviation facility, but held off on the raid scheduled for noon because of concerns for the safety of the estimated 3,000 or so foreign nationals who then remained stranded at the suburban facility.

When the remaining passengers are finally evacuated, armed clashes and bloodshed seem inevitable. PAD leaders have refused to budge from their demand that Somchai step down in their negotiations with government representatives. Meanwhile, the group's leaders from their protest stages have called again on Anupong to stage a coup that topples Somchai's PPP-led administration. Many analysts believe the PAD has purposefully escalated the situation to pave the way for a military intervention.

It's still unclear how anomic the situation must become before the tentative Anupong, or in a potential breakdown in the chain of command, the more assertive Kanit makes a move. Nor is it clear if factions in the armed forces have given from behind the scenes support to the PAD's airport attack. Left-leaning Thai academic Giles Ungpakorn, in an op-ed posted on the Prachathai website on Wednesday, argues that the military conspired with the PAD. . . .

A more vigorous police-led bloodletting, with images of the carnage broadcast far and wide, could yet provide pretense for Anupong to seize power and establish a royally endorsed government of reconciliation and unity. Such a move could be popular with a cross-section of Bangkok's protest-weary middle classes. But in the wake of recent violent events, and in light of growing divisions in Thai society, it's unlikely the military has the authority or legitimacy to accomplish either.