Bangkok Standoff: How can negotiations ever succeed?

For those of us hoping that the tragedy at Silom on Thursday might have sparked both sides to back away from the abyss and pursue a negotiated settlement, the Bangkok Post had some discouraging news Saturday:

Hopes for an agreement to end the long-running protests were dashed Saturday as Abhisit ruled out the Red Shirts' offer to disperse if parliament were dissolved in 30 days for elections.

"No, I reject it. Because they use violence and intimidation I cannot accept this," Abhisit said of the proposal which would have seen a ballot held in 90 days and was a softening of earlier demands for immediate polls.

"The dissolution (of parliament) must be done for the benefit of the entire country, not just for the Red Shirts, and it must be done at the right time," he told reporters.

Yesterday I discussed what I thought it might take for negotiations to succeed; to bring about an end to the standoff between the reds and the government. I concluded: "It looks to me as if a mediator ought to be brought in, if only to help both sides sell any compromise election timetable to their supporters."

Bangkok blogger Tony Joh has posted some thoughts about "face" in Thai culture and what a negotiated settlement would have to look like. Most interesting is an interview Joh conducted with Sean Boonpracong who is the media spokesman for the UDD "red shirt" movement.