Prospects for a negotiated settlement to Bangkok standoff

The tragedy of April 22 provides Thais with a second chance to pause and consider the urgent need to move toward a negotiated settlement to the impasse.

Talks between the two sides ended in late March when the Red Shirts refused to agree to the government's proposal that elections be held at the end of 2010.  The Red Shirts demanded an immediate election.

Following is a survey of some press reports from the past 48 hours or so concerning the prospects for a negotiated settlement, and moves in that direction.

On 22 April BBC reported:

Back in Bangkok, tentative hints of possible new talks between protesters and the government were quashed by comments from several red-shirt leaders. 

"When there are guns pointed at our heads, we cannot talk," said a leader, Weng Tojirakarn.
"The easiest way [to resolve the crisis] is to dissolve parliament and then we will all go home."

A group of red-shirts later gathered outside the UN headquarters in Bangkok to request the presence of UN peacekeeping forces.

Xinhua reported:

The Thai government remained optimistic about resuming negotiations with the "red-shirts" because it believed a crackdown on protestors was not a long-term solution, secretary general to the prime minister Korbsak Sabhavasu said on Thursday.

Korbsak said he had not given up his attempts to hold talks with the "red-shirts" leaders to bring about a settlement.

However, talks could not be held in same form, or televised live, as before, he said.

Korbsak said the government had no intention to break up the demonstration and he believed the military felt the same way.

According to an AFP report dated April 22:

"It is difficult as the situation has changed," Abhisit told reporters when asked about the possibility of fresh talks.

He declined to say whether the authorities would try to disperse the thousands of protesters who are occupying Bangkok's commercial heart....

The government has previously said it is open to more negotiations with the Reds but the protest movement's leaders have refused to return to the table.

"When there are guns pointed at our heads, we cannot talk," a Reds leader, Weng Tojirakarn, said earlier in the day.

According to an AP report::

Thailand's prime minister is ready to negotiate with protesters seeking a change of government, but only when the demonstrators who have illegally occupied city streets agree to abide by the law, his spokesman said Wednesday."The attempt to negotiate has been ongoing, but the official talks can't proceed as long as the demonstration remains unlawful....

Panitan did not spell out exactly what steps the protesters would have to take for the government to restart a dialogue but said violent elements linked to the protesters are a particular sticking point. ...

"The situation has changed now that violence has occurred and terrorism has been involved," said Panitan. "In order for talks to happen, the protesters have to first stop the movements that are linked to terrorism. They have to show that they are under the law."

How exactly would they show that? I wonder.

"The most important point is the protesters should have a firm standpoint," he added. "We don't know what they want to do really."

Key protest leader Nattawut Saikua earlier indicated the demonstrators were open to negotiations to end the confrontations and chaos in the city, which is taking a toll on the economy as well as residents' patience.   "Our group is always open to outside suggestions. Whatever group wants to propose a solution to the crisis, we're happy to hear these solutions," Nattawut said.

However, the Red Shirts have issued contradictory statements about their willingness to talk....

Al Jazeera notes:

Sean Boonpracong, a spokesman for the group, told Al Jazeera that "the government was too quick to place the blame on last night's violence on us".

He added that the movement was "open to negotiations but with a third party, like the United Nations - someone we can trust – because as far was we are concerned, this government has lost all legitimacy and every promise they have made, they have not kept".

Thanong Khanthong writes in The Nation:

Negotiations for a truce are difficult. Abhisit has called the armed red shirts "terrorists". If he were to hold talks with the red shirts now, it would amount to negotiating with terrorists. It is difficult to distinguish the terrorists from the innocent protesters.

I think that's an odd perspective.   The Thai government has made it clear that it is opposed to the "terrorist" element it claims operates among the Red Shirts.  The government has not called all Red Shirts terrorists.

Business would welcome negotiations according to an article in the Nation:

Following yesterday's address by Korbsak Sabhavasu, secretary-general to the prime minister, to the annual conference of the Securities Analysts Association, association president Paiboon Nalinthrangkurn said it was heartening to be convinced negotiations remained part of the government's agenda.

Paiboon, who is CEO of Tisco Securities, said closing the door on negotiations would induce negative consequences, particularly from foreign communities.

"It's a positive sign that the government will try to open another round of negotiations. We hope this yields a successful result. The government itself has yielded to the request for House dissolution, leaving open the right timing," he said.

Another article in the same paper reports: 

The movie "Hotel Rwanda" will be screened at Hua Lumpong railway station tomorrow to remind Thai people how conflict, like the present confrontation with the red-shirt protesters, can ignite into civil war.

Members of 16 organisations will show the movie to express concern over the on-going political conflict between the government and the red shirts, which threatens to expand as the multicolour group joins in.  

The 2004 dramatic movie is based on conflict between the Hutu and Tutsi tribes in Rwanda, which resulted in the deaths of at least 500,000 people in 1994. Media played a key role in the genocide.

I think this is a great idea.  Everyone in Thailand should sit down and watch Hotel Rwanda.  The article continues:

Many people in Thailand are seeking solutions to end the on-going political dispute. A network of peace academics, led by Gothom Arya, yesterday met the red shirts and a government representative, asking both sides to discuss a timeline for Parliament dissolution and an early election - possibly five months from now. Both sides should stop using media propaganda against each other, they said.

The two parties should also work to find the truth behind the bloodshed on April 10, which left 25 dead and injured more than 800.

The government had suggested Parliament open a joint session between the lower and upper houses for general debate on the political situation, said Minister Attached to the Prime Minister's Office, Sathit Wongnongtoey.

"The debate should take place after the confrontation so that the government could answer and clarify the situation for parliamentarians," he said.

Two senators, Pichai Sunthornsajjaboun from Udon Thani and Singchai Thungthong - representing 150 senators - met leaders of the red group to ask them to resume talks with the government and end the stalemate.

However red-shirt leader Nattawut Saikua said it was too late to resume talks since the government had launched a military crackdown on the protesters. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's only option was to take responsibility by dissolving Parliament, he said.

 I don't think this kind of statement, reported to have been made by Red Shirt leader Nattawut Saikua, is satisfactory.   The government has a lot of firepower and Saikua needs to reflect on the risk that another  crackdown poses -- to his followers, soldiers, and ordinary Thais.

The government, however, remains optimistic about resumption of red-shirts negotiations because it believes a military crackdown on protesters is not a long-term solution, secretary-general to the PM, Korbsak Sabhavasu said.

"I am still hopeful for a new round of talks with the red shirts," he said, hinting the government preferred a peaceful solution to the use of force.

Korbsak has pleaded for time, arguing the government was not in a position to comply with demands for an immediate dissolution of Parliament.

Institutions of Thai society from business to academia ought to be demanding a negotiated settlement in stronger terms and in louder voices.   Moreover, the international community should likewise be reinforcing the message that violence cannot resolve Thailand's political difficulties.