Red Shirts' new offer to Bangkok: Elections in one month

Yesterday, I blogged here about the need for negotiations toward ending the standoff that has paralyzed central Bangkok. There was a promising development on that front today.

Reuters:

The red-shirted supporters of ousted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra said on Friday they will end a three-week occupation of Bangkok's ritzy shopping district if the government dissolved parliament and called elections in 30 days, softening a previous demand for immediate polls.

It was unclear whether the military-backed government of embattled Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva would agree to that timetable. Analysts say he is running out of options after weeks of unrest by protesters who have gained a clear upper hand.

SMH  reports on how ordinary reds reacted to news of their leader's proposal:

Red Shirt leaders on Saturday calmed their supporters, some of whom were angry over the concessions.

"The new proposal does not mean we are retreating, in political terms we are on the offensive because otherwise the international community will put pressure on us," Jaran Ditsatapichai said.

"If we shut down the door for negotiation it will be bad for us," he said, adding that foreign diplomats who met with the Reds on Friday had urged them to find a solution to avoid a looming crackdown.

Jaran said the military was reluctant to disperse the rally -- a manoeuvre that would likely cause huge casualties -- and that a crackdown would be shelved during the current negotiating phase.

Other Reds leaders were irritated over Abhisit's response to their proposal, and said they would continue calling in supporters from their stronghold in the country's impoverished and rural north.

"Don't insult our Red Shirts' olive branch, we offered a compromise to avoid further loss of people's lives," Kwanchai Praipana said at the protest camp that has paralysed Thailand's main retail district for three weeks.

"We can fight for one more year, don't underestimate us, we will have more people willing to come and join us at this rally site," he said.

Reuters also reported:

"The government might have to agree to a three-month timeframe, but this doesn't mean this will ease the tensions," said Pitch Pongsawat, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University. "There doesn't seem to be any real control about what's been happening on the streets." 

Thai government officials were meeting on Saturday to consider the red shirts offer after talks with protest leaders late on Friday.

Does Abhisit risk a backlash if his side compromises?  Reuters:

The pro-government protesters, who call themselves "multi-colored shirts," plan to rally again on Saturday.

If Abhisit caves in, those royalists who believe the red shirts want to topple Thailand's monarchy are likely to fight back with a vengeance. In 2008, they blockaded Bangkok's international airport, stranding at least 230,000 people until a court dissolved a pro-Thaksin ruling party for electoral fraud.

Logistically speaking, I imagine that it's probably not even possible to hold a national election in less than one month's time. Preparation would be needed to organize the event.  The reaction of ordinary reds to their leaders' new offer reveals that some of the red shirt  protesters have unreasonable expectations.

For that matter, whether an election is held in one month or three months makes no difference.  The government should be prepared to move the date forward from December. A September election ought to be a compromise agreeable to all parties. For the reds to hold out for anything much sooner would be pointless, given the risk that more lives could be lost in the standoff -- and for what? Six weeks?  And the government hardly loses face if it agrees to hold an election three or four months sooner.  Prime Minister Abhisit has already governed for a long time considering his administration lacks a popular mandate.  

It looks to me as if a mediator ought to be brought in, if only to help both sides sell any compromise election timetable to their supporters.

Is Bill Clinton available?